PMU Arbs

How to read this page. Fair is our best guess at each horse's true price: it mixes the bookmakers' prices (with their margin taken out) and the online tote, then trims outsiders a little because the tote over-bets them. Edge vs fair is how much more the best bookmaker pays than that fair price — that is the value signal, and only that is highlighted. If the books price fewer than 70% of the field, Fair blends the tote with PMU's own expert forecast prices (they sharpen a bare tote, most of all 30–60 minutes out) and the row says tote + tips, or tote only if no forecast exists.
Never flagged as value: horses at 20/1 or bigger, races with a small pool (online under €2,000 or shop under €20,000), and any horse whose bookmaker price has jumped 1.5× in the last 15 minutes drifting at books — the tote has not caught up, and those horses lost heavily in our tests. Those rows are greyed out. Book vs tote (price only) just compares the bookmaker with what the tote would pay right now. It is not value: backing the book whenever it beat the tote lost money at every threshold we tried. The tote keeps moving until the off, so nothing here is a locked arb. Online tote is the pmu.fr pool; shop tote is PMU's on-course/shop pool.