PlusEVData/investing

๐Ÿ“Š Morning briefing

Daily snapshot โ€” gate state, today's portfolio, basket changes vs yesterday, insider alerts, deployed strategy performance.

๐Ÿšฆ SPY 100d-MA gate

โ€” leader engaged โ€” leader to cash
SPY:
100d MA:
Ratio:
Last 30d above:

๐Ÿงญ Market regime (3-state GaussianMixture on SPY)

P(BULL):
P(CHOP):
P(BEAR):
Last 30 days regime mix:
BULL: /CHOP: /BEAR:

Three regimes auto-discovered from 8 years of SPY 21d/60d return + vol. BULL = high-return high-vol breakout periods (~7% of history); CHOP = low-vol normal markets (~58%); BEAR = elevated vol with weaker returns (~35%). The simple SPY > 100d-MA gate and the regime classifier can disagree โ€” both are signals.

๐Ÿ’ผ Today's combo portfolio  full positions โ†’

Top 15 holdings

#SymbolSectorWt

Changes since last snapshot

+ Added ():
โˆ’ Dropped ():
No basket changes since yesterday's snapshot.

๐Ÿ“ฐ News sentiment (RSS)

Yahoo Finance per-symbol RSS + finance lexicon scoring. Net = pos words โˆ’ neg words across last ~20 headlines.

Most positive

SymbolNet+/-Items

Most negative

SymbolNet+/-Items

๐Ÿ“… Earnings within 14 days

Stocks reporting earnings soon. Consider sizing down positions or hedging โ€” stocks held in your combo basket are flagged.

SymbolDateDaysIn basket?

๐ŸŽฏ High-conviction picks (signal agreement)

Stocks where multiple independent alpha streams agree. Higher signal count = higher conviction. "Smart-money + insider" combos are particularly potent โ€” institutions AND insiders both buying.

Symbol# SignalsStreams

โš ๏ธ Tail-risk indicator

/100
5-component composite: realized vol, SPY drawdown, VIX, yield curve, credit spread. Higher = more defensive positioning warranted.
vol 60d:
SPY DD risk:
VIX pct:
YC inv risk:
Credit spread risk:

๐Ÿ“ฐ Macro snapshot โ€” from FRED, free official data

SeriesDescriptionLatest30d ฮ”YoY ฮ”

๐ŸŒ Cross-asset trend

CTA-style trend across bonds, gold, dollar, commodities, REITs, international + US equities. Gives genuinely uncorrelated alpha to US-equity strategies. Standalone Sharpe ~0.7, MV weight 5%.

SymbolTrendPriceSMA50/SMA200

โšก Live insider buys (last 7 days) โ€” Form 4 Code P scraped from SEC EDGAR atom feed

Near-real-time (Form 4 must file within 2 business days of transaction). Top 20 by $ value.

FiledSymbolBuyerTitle$ ValueSharesPrice

๐Ÿ‹ Top insider cluster-buys (last 30d)  full leaderboard โ†’

Stocks with 3+ insiders buying with own money in last 30 days. Form 4 Code P only.

Symbol#BuyersBuy $

๐Ÿ“ˆ Deployed strategy backtest

5-stream MV-LedoitWolf combo across overlap window where insider data is present.

VariantSharpeSortinoCAGRMaxDD

๐Ÿ”’ Holdout test (one-shot result)

WindowStrategySharpeCAGRMaxDD